MLS week 4

rolltide · Mar 29, 2012

12-0-3 +28.25 (staked 50.48, +56.0%)
week 1 4-0 +15.70
week 2 5-1 +6.00
week 3 3-2 +6.55

Philadelphia vs Vancouver
- Philly in a similar position that RBNY were in last week...basically an early season "must win" game. Vancouver a near-perfect 2-1-0 start without conceding a goal but were badly outplayed by both CUSA and DC United in the past two weeks. In fact, against DC at home they registered exactly ZERO shots on goal and at CUSA had just 2 SOG...we're talking about 2 shots on goal in 180 minutes! Vancouver got first ever road win at CUSA but as I said in my season preview I don't believe their style of play will do well in road games. Very tough to travel from Vancouver to eastern time zone and they were 0-1-7 there last year with the only point gained at New York who were down to 10 men for the entire second half. Philly now 0-0-6 dating back to last season and have just one goal in 3 matches this year that they scored on their own. Still, if you saw them take apart the Colorado defense two weeks ago you know it's just a matter of time until they break out offensively. They get Freddy Adu back from US Olympic team while Vancouver without their top defender, Rochat. The big story will be the return of Caps' forward Le Toux to Philly as he was arguably their best player the past 2 years. Philly had a lot of draws against the west last year, 2-5-1, but I think they're a lot better than their record indicates while Vancouver are not nearly as good as their record simply because they've played three of the worst teams in the league. Until Philly start netting their chances I can't take them big but really anything above -1/2 @2.00 should be taken against the Whitecaps. A bit of an early tip as neither sbobet nor pinnacle have lines up. I got -1/4 @1.88 at 12bet but they now dropped it to 1.79 so bigger value sits in -1/2 price now.

Philadelphia 4.5u +120 bwin/bet365

rolltide · Mar 30, 2012

LA Galaxy vs New England
- Not a lot of 1.30 odds in MLS but I believe it is warranted with either New England or Montreal playing in Los Angeles. The two week break came at a perfect time for LA who are led by a very old core group of players (LD, DB, RK) that played 4 matches in 12 days and 8 matches in 25 days (including preseason). They hammered DC before the break and should do the same to New England. That match against DC was the best performance by any MLS team so far this season and gives a good hint at just how great this team can be, perhaps the best team in league history. LA will not overlook NE like they did last year where the Revs snuck a point in LA's home opener. SOG in that match were 7-1 as NE scored in the 3rd minute on their only shot that was on target. Great win by the Revs last week who scored the lone goal just 28 seconds into the match and used attacking MF, Joseph, as an emergency center back but that win was more due to portland's road futility. No such luck for them this week as LA have lost just one home game in last 22 and are 12-0-1 L13 in MLS play. Strangely enough they lose home points almost exclusively to Eastern teams as NE, RBNY, DC, TFC all drew here early last year but then LA just rolled everyone including 5-0-0 L5 against Eastern teams. Both Jordan and Cristman are back in training, Stephens back from US Olympics debacle, so only reserve forward Jack McBean will miss out as he's going to a u-18 tourney but he was unlikely to see the field anyway. Revs injury list is up in the air with their best player, Feilhaber, unlikely to play and important Alston struggling with a broken nose while Nyassi remains out. The Revs defense is a real joke as they are probably the worst collective group in MLS and now face the best attack in league history (LD, Juninho, Becks, Buddle, Keane, Magee). LA not a very strong defense so far in the season so wouldn't be surprised if the Revs scored and this ended 4-1. Revs were winless out west last year, 0-4-5, and haven't defeated a Western team on the road since August 2009, 0-6-14 in last 20 tries. The key on Saturday will be to score first as NE are just 0-3-15 L18 when allowing first goal.

LA Galaxy -1.25 3u -104 pinnacle

gobucks · Mar 30, 2012

Great write-ups Rolltide. I took the Galaxy at -1 (-155). I figure a push at worst (of course that's what I thought about Chivas/RSL). Good luck.

tk2wndw · Mar 30, 2012

The guy has 3 losses all year and has been killing it from the start and you put up a comment like that? Come on.

gobucks · Mar 30, 2012

I didn't mean any offense at all...you are right...Rolltide's MLS picks are gold and I appreciate them. The Chivas/Salt Lake result was a shock to many.
My apologies if I came off as a jerk.

tk2wndw · Mar 30, 2012

All good, guy is an MLS guru.

rolltide · Mar 31, 2012

match at 2pm

Toronto FC vs Columbus
- had to wait for lineups as TFC have midweek match in Santos. A bit worried about a look-ahead but after their 0-3 thumping from San Jose they are clearly going for a win today. Lineup is Kocic; Eckersley, Harden, Emory, Morgan; Johnson, Dunfield, de Guzman; Soolsma, Koevermans, Plata which is basically best 11. Cbus were pathetic in Colorado and then beat a 10 man expansion team at home so no reason to think they deserve to be anything but underdogs in a road game. TFC very strange team...beat LA away, draw Santos, but get crushed by SJ so not going too big here. Their h2h is awful vs Cbus but this year I'd rate them no worse than same and maybe the better team. Frings out in MF which is tough but just a small wager. Cbus can't be away favorites to anyone right now IMO

Toronto pk 2u +102 12bet/IBC

rolltide · Apr 1, 2012

brutal 0-0-3 -9.62 ... might be back for some more Sunday but need to sleep this one off

Philly 0-0 -4.5
LA 1-3 -3.12
Tor 0-1 -2.00

12-0-6 +18.63 (staked 60.10, +31.0%)